Risk anticipation and mitigation are critical to stability in the 21st century. Brazil’s Embraer, for instance, marshalling inputs from over 700 suppliers around the world, relies on the strategic management of its global supply chain for international competitiveness. Geopolitics is simply geographical politics meaning the impact of geography on the entire political spectrum. The Middle East, South and Central Asia, and Europe are all likely to undergo shifts in their balances of power that will define regional political dynamics for decades, with Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and French President Emmanuel Macron leading pushes for both change and consolidation of influence in their respective spheres. 8. In 2016 following a failed coup d'état, the Turkish government targeted domestic … These are very worrying questions, and include geopolitical issues: for example, Mr President, we do not want Europe to end up bordering Iraq, Iran and other countries [...] of that type. All of this, taken together, is driving a massive shift in the global order. Whatever the outcome of the period, the awareness of historical … Critical geopolitical scholarship continues to engage critically with questions surrounding geopolitical discourses, geopolitical practice (i.e. 4. the Persistent threat of the Islamic State. 4. the Persistent threat of the Islamic State. That such unprecedented upheaval was completely foreign to and unanticipated by almost all people alive today is a testament to the relative stability of previous decades, but also a revealing indicator of the challenges governments will continue to face when it comes to leading populations through adversity. By Gregory F. Treverton. The popularity of geopolitical theory declined after World War II, both because of its association with Nazi German and imperial Japanese aggression and because the emergence of nuclear explosives and ballistic missiles reduced the significance of geographical factors in … Instead, focuse on American credibility and communism, led to support for the Saigon’s government, destructive approach and futile efforts to pressurize North Vietnam (Gleditsch, Christiansen & Hegre 2004). Russia continues to expand its influence, while tension increases between Saudi Arabia and Iran as they fight for supremacy in the Middle East. Global dependence on key transportation systems such as jet aircraft, container vessels, and tankers is growing steadily, building up an increasing array of complex, economically important, and time-sensitive economic subsystems. The work of Ratzel and Mackinder are early examples of geopolitical writing with an emphasis on the geographic bases of political strategy. Macron and the future of the European Union. Top Risks of 2021The GPC in Latin America. 10. The intersection of Climate Change and Political Stability. Nowhere is this opportunity more apparent than on China’s periphery. However, it is important to note how dependent on historical context the evolution and application of the modern geopolitical assumption have been. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. It is, for example, the source of a large flow of drugs, which the new administration cannot control. The huge Covid-19 storm is undoubtedly only still in its infancy. Geopolitical Behavior of Russia; China’s Geopolitical Stance Characteristics; Case Study: Sue's Accounting Ethics; Designing and implementing a conflict management system; Ukrainian Crisis: Russia and the West' Tension; The Strait of Hormuz's Geopolitical Significance; The Suez Canal's Geopolitical … The full economic, cyclical and structural effects are not quite visible yet, but, in any case, they will be gigantic. As well … It has not yet really reached the Global South, for example, or the innumerable pockets of abject misery on the planet in Bangladesh, Yemen, South Sudan, refugee camps in Pakistan or India, Idlib, and so on. Issues like climate change, digital disruption, and migration will act as threat multipliers in 2020, but a number of country specific threats will complicate the global chessboard as well. Subscribe to receive our free newsletter with expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Other examples include a banking crisis in Europe that results in market players piling into U.S. Treasuries, which could result in American bond yields falling, a strengthening of the greenback and selling pressure on global equities. As always, the challenge of risk forecasting is that human behavior, and more precisely, human whim, remains the element that algorithmic data cannot accurately control. Of course, the risks inherent to the aftershocks of the pandemic will not accrue in a vacuum: in 2021 cyber security threats against nation states and private enterprise will mount, largely driven by geopolitical trends, climate change will continue to threaten political stability in wealthy and poor countries alike, the Islamic State will persist as a significant terrorist threat in locales ranging from Europe to Asia, and policy makers, especially those in the West, will struggle to reassert and redefine the role of diplomacy in resolving disputes in an increasingly tense international environment. For example, economic and environmental variables and technological developments have already started altering the ways of assessing distance, space, influence and power. Water politics, sometimes called hydropolitics, is politics affected by the availability of water and water resources, a necessity for all life forms and human development.. Arun P. Elhance's definition of hydropolitics is "the systematic study of conflict and cooperation between states over water resources that transcend international borders". Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Unlike the Greater Mississippi Basin, the Great Lakes are not naturally navigable due to winter freezes and obstacles such as Niagara Falls. The Displacement of Traditional Diplomacy. A weakened United States would mean less of an emphasis on human rights and maintenance of global order. 5. Some of the worst business disruptions in 2020 will come not from trade wars or terrorist attacks alone, but from the intersection of multiple geopolitical risks. It is assumed that a substantial part of the income from this trade Second, there are the Great Lakes. The Underappreciated Role of Geopolitics in Cyber Security, The Increasingly Visible Connection Between Climate Change and Political Stability, Digital Disruption 2.0: The Looming Confrontation Between Technology and Open Societies, Without a New Counterterrorism Framework, the Islamic State Threat Will Continue to Grow. Indeed, since the fall of the Taliban there has been little progress in that country. Luminae Group is a leading global advisory firm specializing in geopolitics and risk forecasting. Tensions between governing elites and their citizens are reshaping global geopolitics. In the coming years, well beyond just 2021, the pandemic will continue to send shockwaves through the global economy, exacerbating not just resource and income disparities between countries, but also further polarizing domestic populations along gender and class lines. Nearly all of the aforementioned trends will complicate the US national security horizon in the coming months, but doom and gloom need not be the prevailing sentiments. After the war, two superpowers emerged: the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. Geopolitics didn't … The challenge in risk forecasting, and indeed the key geopolitical threat the world is facing in 2020, is the unpredictability of both black swan events and human behavior. Expropriation Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. These TNCs are hubs of regional and global supply chains. 9. India About Blog Global Issues provides insights into global issues that may be misrepresented but are all closely related. Other issues hotly debated in the United States in the late 20th and early 21st centuries include the expansion of rights and protections to minority and historically disadvantaged groups, such as African-Americans, women and gays and lesbians, especially affirmative action and the right of same-sex couples to marry; the degree to which the government should seek to protect the environment from … Read the Risk →. Further reading is suggested in each instance. In 2019, business losses due to political risk were higher than ever. Luminae Group is a leading global advisory firm specializing in geopolitics and risk forecasting. This can be seen in various forms with a wide range of examples such as focusing on environmental factors in making decisions. Likewise, a looming, determinative confrontation between Big Tech and the governments of a number of open societies, the United States included, presents a chance to seriously revisit and reconstitute the relationship between large, seemingly stateless multinationals and their nations of origin, potentially shifting operational standards in a manner that better serves both national security and profit interests in the long term. To some scholars it appears that in the 21st century geography is largely scenery, all but irrelevant to the most important issues of grand strategy. Eastern Europe will face many geopolitical challenges in 2015. Subscribe to receive our free newsletter with expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. 2021: Permanent Change is Afoot in Gulf Politics, The Relentlessness of Putin: What 2021 Will Reveal About the Russian Leader’s Staying Power and Vision for the Future of Moscow, Why the United States Must Counter China and Vie for Larger Spheres of Influence in Asia, Restoring the Value of Diplomacy in a New World Order, The Continuing Geopolitical Aftershocks of the COVID-19 Pandemic. 2. europarl.europa.eu. This is the first in a series of posts by Brookings’s vice president for foreign policy that will highlight Brookings scholars’ new and ongoing work on “the new geopolitics.” This text is an atlas which provides a map and text describing and analyzing the situation, issues and present status for each of the major current and potential geopolitical flashpoints. If the experience of 2020 illustrated one thing, it was that having fire insurance does not make the burning down of one’s house an acceptable outcome. Insurance is not a solution. The number of stalled revolutions around the world is on the rise. Can Emmanuel Macron Save the European Union from Itself? foreign policy), and the history of geopolitics. Best Political/Geopolitical & Social Thrillers by jeffhchambers | created - 04 Nov 2014 | updated - 17 Jun 2018 | Public Chronological Listing Of Very Highly Rated And Recommended Personal Favorites Refine See titles to watch instantly, titles you haven't rated, etc. In crisis, there is always opportunity, and on the cusp of a new presidential administration, the United States has a prime window to capitalize on developments across the globe, seizing the moment to expand the long term influence of American commercial enterprise and bolstering its foreign policy prospects in the process. US sanctions policy, stalled revolutions, protectionism, digital disruption, climate change, political violence, and other forces of disruption have introduced unprecedented levels of volatility for businesses to navigate. As 2021 begins, the first rounds of vaccine rollouts have given the world a sense of optimism, but unfortunately, with the continued discovery of virus variants and uneven impacts of the pandemic, populations should expect the year ahead to look a lot more like 2020: The Sequel than life before the pandemic. World War II, for example, was an event that changed geopolitics as we knew it. In 11 years, the first nuclear weapon since 1945 will be used in a conflict and China and America will defuse the crisis. Geopolitical research is frequently portrayed as a dead end. There is still a great deal of uncertainty around the fall-out from Brexit, American politics remain fractious, and global leadership is in retreat as heads of state from North America to Asia are mired in domestic crises. Building upon a foundation laid in 2019 and 2020, the United Arab Emirates is poised to capitalize on a year of shifting alliances and strategic maneuvers in the Gulf that is likely to position it as the prime Sunni Arab power broker in Middle Eastern regional politics for decades to come. certain areas—in Afghanistan, for example. In part because the pandemic has laid bare the operational vulnerabilities of governments in times of crisis, we pay special attention to US national security interests in this year’s top ten geopolitical risks. If Today's Geopolitical Trends Continue, This Is What Our Future Could Look Like. 2021 is poised to be an inflection point in the history of the European Union, and the level of success French President Emmanuel Macron is able to achieve resetting France’s social, economic, and security trajectory will be an indicator, more broadly, of the continent’s future. Top Risks of 2021The GPC in Latin America. China grows bolder on its quest to solidify its position as an international superpower. The US and China: A race For Influence. Al Qaeda, for example, has been implicated in recent attacks on economic targets such as oil tankers. In 2021, one of the most significant global geopolitical risks will continue to be the pervasiveness of the Islamic State’s ideology and the resulting persistent, worldwide threat of terrorist attacks. To navigate the challenge of cyber threats successfully in 2021, leaders in both Silicon Valley and Washington must understand two things: 1) multinational corporations, particularly US tech companies, are not insulated from national security issues, and 2) global geopolitics categorically shape the cyber threat landscape. The effect of geopolitical risks (GPRs) is found to be heterogeneous across the BRICS stock markets, suggesting that news regarding geopolitical tensions do not affect return dynamics in these markets in a uniform way. 5. The more obvious examples include the Gulf of St. Lawrence, San Francisco Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Galveston Bay and Long Island Sound/New York Bay. Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. Different geopolitical eras can be identified characterized by changes in hegemonic power from the colonial era dominance of the likes of Britain and France, through the USA–USSR rivalry of the Cold War, to the current military dominance of the United States. The Long Term Geopolitical Impacts of Covid. As a result, executives across a range of global industries are starting to take note of the need to get ahead of risk further upstream and to analyze the risk horizon more holistically. For example, during the Vietnam War, U.S. policymakers underestimated the fact that Saigon’s repression, bad governance and corruption contributed to the insurgency. Less of a U.S. presence on the global stage creates gaps … The COVID-19 pandemic introduced a level of volatility into the global economy reminiscent of the economic struggle of the Great Depression and political disruption of WWII. europarl.europa.eu. In 2021, China will continue to seek consolidation of regional influence through transactional diplomacy, and the United States would be wise to take advantage of opportunities in countries on China’s periphery that could advance geostrategic security and commercial interests, all while pushing back against Beijing. This part of the globalissues.org web site introduces a number of geopolitical issues, including the arms trade, landmines, children and conflicts, the international criminal court, the need for NATO, foreign policy practices, military expansionsim, arms races and more. Issues like climate change, digital disruption, and migration will act as threat multipliers in 2020, but a number of country specific threats will complicate the global chessboard as well. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. The past four years have witnessed a meaningful departure from the norms and customs that defined international diplomacy in past centuries, leaving Antony Blinken, incoming Secretary of State, with a challenge: how to strike the right balance between embracing the prevailing trends, which have led to a number of indisputably positive developments, and transitioning to a modus operandi that accounts for a wider array of geopolitical concerns and ratchets down tensions in the process. Governments and private enterprises must approach geopolitical risk holistically, using both human and data-based sources, in order to capture threats accurately, before they materialize into human or monetary losses. Perhaps first among them will be dealing with the consequences of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Russian-backed insurgency in Ukraine, which has already widened its scope in January. Preparedness and comprehensive, systematic risk analysis will be imperative to minimizing losses and maximizing opportunities in 2020. Geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways. To a large degree, the risk inherent in the trends that are shaping the world today comes from the inability of governments to effectively anticipate and manage the coming changes in ways that preserve or create security and prosperity for their citizens. Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. List of topics covered include social, political, economic and environmental issues, including human rights, economy, trade, globalization, poverty, environment and health related issues. What Are Some Examples of Geopolitical Risk? Brazil´s Embraer, India´s Tata, and China´s Lenovo are good examples. The world is facing an ever-growing number of interconnected geopolitical threats. Geopolitics (from Greek γῆ gê "earth, land" and πολιτική politikḗ "politics") is the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations. In 2021, open societies will find themselves in an increasingly precarious position, as formal political institutions struggle to react effectively to civic mobilization catalyzed by social media platforms and other disruptive digital technologies. With 2021 set to be a pivotal year for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s adversaries will be challenged to balance how their own national security and foreign policy resources are devoted to legitimate events that dominate headlines versus those that aren’t easily perceived by the naked eye. This working paper aims to revitalise geopolitics, reflecting both on the critique of the subject and the strengths that have characterised it for more than a century. Understanding the Fidels of the World requires Empathy-based Nuance: Embrace and Teach It. An example of geopolitical risk could include a flare-up of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran that resulted in a spike in the price of oil. Around 2015, a new branch of the critical geopolitics literature appeared, deconstructing and critiquing another new branch of literature, on the geopolitics of renewables. In 2021, one of the most significant global geopolitical risks will continue to be the pervasiveness of the Islamic State’s ideology and the resulting persistent, worldwide threat of terrorist attacks.
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